Are
We a Threat to Russia?
February
9, 2022
Today I read online
a statement by someone identified as a Kremlin spokesperson. He said that
Russia faces a threat that is only getting stronger. He could only mean that NATO
putting more troops into former Soviet Socialist Republics and former members
of the Warsaw Pact presents a threat to Russia. NATO is predominantly the United States. So I want to consider here
whether or not we actually are a threat to Russia and if we aren’t why Russia
thinks we are. To understand why Russia thinks NATO is a threat, whether it
really is or not, we will have to consider Russia’s current context and how
that context relates to Russia’s history. First, Russia’s current context.
Until December
25, 1991, the date when the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics was officially
dissolved, Russia was by far the dominant element in a nation that was a
legitimate world power. Other nations and groups of nations like NATO had to
consider the Soviet Union in making many of their geopolitical decisions. The
power of the Soviet Union was not limited to within its own borders. The USSR
had created a buffer between itself and western Europe. The buffer consisted of
a string of nations ruled by Communists and dominated by the Soviet Union that
stretched from the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania that were
within the Soviet Union itself in the north to Bulgaria in the south. All of
those nations, three of them as part of the Soviet Union, were members of the
Warsaw Pact, the mostly militarily alliance the Soviet Union created several
years after the creation of NATO in the west. By the time the USSR ceased to
exist that buffer was gone. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were independent
sovereign states. Communists no longer controlled any of the Warsaw Pact nations,
and the Warsaw Pact was terminated on July 1, 1991, several months before the
dissolution of the Soviet Union. Russia was more vulnerable to attack from western
Europe that it had been for a long time, or at least that’s surely what the
Russian government thought.
Then, from the
Russians’ point of view, things got worse. A lot worse. The nations that had
been Russia’s buffer began to join NATO, the military alliance that had been
Russia’s opponent all through the years of the Cold War. The Czech Republic,
Hungary, and Poland joined NATO in 1999. Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania,
Romania, and Slovakia joined NATO in 2004. Russia surely saw these countries
joining NATO as a betrayal of their former ally Russia. Worse, for the Russians
the wolf was at the door. The military alliance that had been their adversary
since it was founded in 1949 was now at Russia’s doorstep.[1]
Russia is so large geographically that we can’t say that NATO surrounded Russia.
Still, military forces that Russia had opposed for decades were now on Russia’s
western border as they never had been before.
Now we must
consider that reality in the context of Russian history. Over the centuries
western powers have invaded Russia again and again. For example, Poland invaded
Russia in 1609. Sweden invaded Russia in 1707 and had done so before way back
in 1240. The French under Napoleon invaded Russia in 1812. The Germans under
Hitler invaded Russia in 1941. The effect of these and other invasions of
Russia from the west on the Russians may be hard for us Americans to
understand. No foreign military has invaded the United States since 1812.[2]
We have land borders with only two nations, Canada and Mexico, neither of which
would have any chance of defeating us if they invaded. We are protected by
oceans both on our east coast and on our west coast. Russia is so very
different in this regard. It borders eight nations to the west, all of which
except Finland are now members of NATO. Russia has no natural barriers to
invasion from the west. That great country is vulnerable to invasion in a way
we are not and never have been. It would be surprising if Russia were not
defensive about invasion from the west. I find it not difficult at all to
understand why Russia would see the presence of NATO at its border to be a
threat.
So Russia
perceives NATO to be a threat to her national security , but is it? I like to
think and hope not. NATO was formed in 1949 specifically as an anti-Russian
(anti-Soviet actually) organization. A number of countries of western Europe
plus Canada and the United States formed NATO to prevent further Soviet
expansion into western Europe. But NATO is and always has been a defensive
alliance. It did once bomb Serbs in an effort to stop the genocide the Serbs
wee committing against Muslims in Bosnia-Herzegovina, but it has conducted no
other military action in Europe. Surely the leaders of NATO know the history of
the catastrophe that befell both Napoleon and Hitler when they made the
colossal mistake of invading Russia. I cannot imagine a situation that would
prompt NATO to invade Russia.
So we have here an
unfortunate relationship between NATO and Russia. Russia sees NATO as a threat.
NATO sees its mission as defensive only not as being an offensive threat to
Russia or anyone else. This situation calls for well-informed and careful
action by both sides. If I have a fear here it is that the politicians who make
decisions for NATO are insufficiently sensitive to Russia’s security concerns
and fears. Those fears and concerns are easy to dismiss only if you are insufficiently
knowledgeable about Russian history—and we Americans are notoriously bad at
understanding the history of Russia or of anyone else including ourselves. I do
not think NATO will invade Russia. I do not think NATO will attack Russia even
if Russian invades Ukraine as Russian president Putin has threatened to do. I
pray that I am right about that, and I pray that Russia does not feel so
threatened by NATO that it attacks NATO nations though they are indeed on
Russia’s doorstep. A war between Russia and NATO would be a disaster for both
sides even if neither side used its nuclear weapons. Let us all hope and pray
that cooler heads will prevail and that the current difficult situation in
eastern Europe does not erupt into violence.
[1] The
nation of Belarus is an independent country located between Russia and Poland.
It became an independent country when the Soviet Union fell apart, but it did
not join the migration to NATO as so many other states did. It is such a close
ally of Russia that I consider Belarus’ western border to be Russia’s western
border. As I write these words Russia and Belarus’ are preparing to conduct a
large, joint military exercise in Belarus’.
[2]
The Japanese did occupy some of the Aleutian Islands and dropped one bomb on
Oregon during World War II, but neither of those actions posed any real threat
to this country.
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