Should President Biden Run for Reelection?

 

Should President Biden Run for Reelection?

July 7, 2024

This country has an enormous problem. The Democrats are fracturing over whether President Biden should continue his run for reelection or should drop out in favor of some other Democrat, probably Vice President Kamala Harris. This division in the party is a problem mostly because it increases the chances that our fascist Republican Donald Trump will win the election, take over the federal government, and destroy this nation and its democracy as much as he can.

It is difficult for anyone, especially President Biden I suppose, to decide whether he should continue his campaign or withdraw. It is difficult for one primary reason, namely, it is not clear which Democrat would have the best chance of defeating Trump; and that’s all that matters. It matters not at all whether Biden serves another term or Harris or some other Democrat becomes president next January. What matters is that Donald Trump not become president next January.

At least two factors suggest Biden should withdraw. One is his standing in the polls. He trails Trump. Not by a lot, but he trails him. The polls, of course, don’t prove anything, but Biden trailing Trump in them is still not a good sign. The other and more important factor is Biden’s age. He will turn 82 a few days after the November election. He came across as not just old but as feeble in his recent TV debate with Trump. He has made a gaff or two since then as well. The polls say a large majority of Americans are concerned about his age. His mental capacity to act as president is in doubt. Trump isn’t that much younger than Biden (he’s 78), but he comes across as more vigorous. He looks younger than he is. It is a real question whether this country would reelect a president who seems as old and sometimes as age-impaired as Biden does.

There are, however, also factors that suggest that Biden should stay in the race. One is that Harris does slightly worse against Trump in the polls than Biden does. She certainly is younger than Biden (she will turn 60 in October of this year). When she ran for president in 2020, she did not come across as a particularly effective campaigner, though her election to the Senate from California shows that she is capable of receiving a large percentage of the votes at least in a liberal state like the one she represented in the Senate. Her age and mental competence at least would not be the issue that they are for Trump.

Perhaps more importantly, Biden withdrawing from the race could create a difficult situation for his successor as the Democrats’ presidential candidate. The election is only  four months away as I write in early July, 2024. That’s not much time for running a national presidential campaign. Many Democrats would resent Biden’s withdrawal and perhaps not give Harris the unified, enthusiastic support of the Democratic establishment that she would need to defeat Trump. Both President Truman and President Johnson declined to run for reelection when they were eligible to do so. Their successors as the Democratic candidate, Adlai Stevenson and Hubert Humphrey, both lost to Republican opponents, Dwight Eisenhower and Richard Nixon respectively. Biden withdrawing could leave Harris in a difficult position with only long odds of winning the presidency.

Then, sadly, there is the issue of whether this country would elect any woman of color president. We have had a man of color, Barack Obama, as president, but we’ve never had a woman of any ethnic description as president. Kamala Harris is of African-American and Asian-American (Indian) descent. Perhaps we like to think that gender and race don’t matter anymore, but the success of Trump’s racist and misogynist movement suggests otherwise. Would it be wise for the Democrats to run a woman of color for president, especially in today’s problematic circumstances? I fear that it might not be. And remember, the only thing that matters is: Who has the best chance of defeating Donald Trump?

So the decision of whether or not President Biden should continue as the Democratic presidential nominee or should withdraw in favor of his vice president is not an easy one. The more I think about it, however, the more I believe Biden should withdraw. He has been a very good president. He has a lot of accomplishments as president. He is not, however, a good candidate. Being a good president and being a good candidate are not the same thing. For example, the American voters thought George W. Bush was a good candidate, but he was a very bad president. The same is true of Richard Nixon. Perhaps no one can defeat Trump in November, but it is becoming more and more apparent that President Biden cannot. Therefore, if I had a say in the matter (which of course I do not), I would say President Biden should step aside. I doubt that he will. I also doubt that he will win in November, and Donald Trump again becoming president will be a great tragedy for this country and for the world.